The California Department of Insurance has approved a 29.1% overall rate increase for the FAIR Plan’s dwelling policies, and it takes effect on 15 October 2026 — on new business and renewals alike. If you are one of the roughly 668,600 California households that ended up on the FAIR Plan, that date is the one to work backwards from.
Here is the part that gets lost in the headlines: the increase is not the story. The story is that for the first time since 2022, some FAIR Plan policyholders have somewhere else to go.
What was actually approved, and what it is not
The FAIR Plan asked for 35.8%. The Department approved 29.1%, effective 15 October 2026 for all new and renewal dwelling business.
29.1% is a statewide average, not your increase. That distinction matters more than any other number in this article. The filing was built under the Department’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, which lets carriers price using CDI-approved catastrophe models and recover the net cost of reinsurance — both of which sort risk far more finely than the old historical-loss approach did. The practical effect is that the increase concentrates where modelled wildfire risk is highest. Homes with serious wildfire exposure can see increases well above 29%, and the wildfire portion of some premiums roughly doubles. Homes with modest exposure see smaller increases, and a minority will see their premium come down.
So “29%” tells you almost nothing about your own renewal. You will not know your number until your renewal offer arrives — which is exactly why the useful work happens before it does.
Why the FAIR Plan had to do this
Worth understanding, because it tells you whether to expect this again.
The FAIR Plan is not a company. It is a syndicated pool that every admitted carrier in California is required to participate in, and it exists as the market of last resort — the place you land when nobody else will write you. It has no shareholders and no reserves in the sense a normal insurer has. When claims exceed what it holds, it assesses its member companies.
That is not theoretical any more. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires cost the FAIR Plan an estimated $4 billion, and it assessed member insurers $1 billion to pay claims. Meanwhile the pool it has to cover kept growing: residential dwelling exposure went from $160 billion in 2021 to $558 billion by 2025, and policy count grew 44% between autumn 2024 and the end of 2025 as major carriers withdrew from wildfire country. That withdrawal is the same one behind the non-renewal notices California homeowners have been receiving — the FAIR Plan is where those policies landed.
A pool with that much exposure, priced below the risk, is not stable. The rate increase is the Department and the Plan trying to make the numbers add up. Nobody involved — including the FAIR Plan itself — regards a 668,600-policy market of last resort as a good outcome. The stated goal is to shrink it.
The thing that actually changed: the admitted market reopened
This is the development that makes October worth acting on rather than just absorbing.
The same Sustainable Insurance Strategy that let the FAIR Plan raise rates put a condition on carriers: if you want to use catastrophe modelling to set your rates, you have to commit to writing business in wildfire-distressed areas. That trade has started to produce movement.
Mercury and CSAA received California’s first two Sustainable Insurance Strategy rate approvals in December 2025. Farmers removed its monthly new-business cap in November 2025. On 24 April 2026, Travelers announced it would expand California homeowners writing — the first top-ten carrier commitment since the LA fires. The list of carriers accepting new California homeowners business is still short, but as of mid-2026 it is lengthening for the first time in four years.
Not everything reopened. State Farm General has not taken new applications since May 2023, and Allstate has been paused since November 2022. And appetite is specific: a carrier “writing in California” may still decline your particular address, roof age, or brush clearance. What is available to you depends on your property, not on the news.
Which is the entire argument for having someone shop it rather than reading a list. We are an independent agency, so we can tell you what will actually quote your home — and we will tell you plainly when the FAIR Plan is still your best or only option, because for some homes it is.
What this looks like in San Diego County
We are in the part of the state where this bites hardest, and the pattern here is more uneven than most homeowners expect.
The exposure is inland and east — the foothill and back-country communities where chaparral meets subdivisions, and where the mapped fire risk driving modelled pricing runs highest. Coastal and central San Diego is a different conversation entirely, and homeowners there are often surprised to learn they have more market options than they assumed.
Under catastrophe-model rating that difference is sharper than it used to be. Two homes a few miles apart, both of which would once have been priced off the same broad historical loss data, can now land in genuinely different places — and the home on the favourable side of that line is the one most likely to have been put on the FAIR Plan unnecessarily during the 2023–2025 pullback.
The granularity cuts both ways, which is why a blanket assumption — “I’m in a fire area, the FAIR Plan is all I can get” — is worth testing this year even if it was true two years ago.
A FAIR Plan policy is not a whole policy
If you have been on the FAIR Plan a while, this is worth re-reading, because it is where people discover gaps at the worst possible moment.
A FAIR Plan dwelling policy covers fire and smoke, and not much else. It does not include liability. It does not include theft. It does not include water damage. Most people on it carry a companion “difference in conditions” policy from a non-admitted carrier to fill those holes — and the total of the two is the number to compare against an admitted market quote, not the FAIR Plan premium alone.
People comparing only the FAIR Plan portion routinely conclude they cannot do better when in fact they can. Bring both declarations pages.
Two other exclusions worth naming while you are looking at your coverage, because neither is on any homeowners policy in California:
- Earthquake is excluded from every standard California homeowners policy and needs a separate policy. See how earthquake coverage and deductibles actually work, or our earthquake insurance page.
- Flood is also excluded, and it is a live concern this winter with a strong El Niño in the forecast. Our sister agency handles that specifically at California Flood Insurance.
What to do before 15 October
Four things, in the order that matters.
- Find out whether you are on the FAIR Plan at all. A surprising number of people do not know. Look at the carrier name on your declarations page; if it says California FAIR Plan Association, that is you.
- Get the admitted market tested now, not at renewal. Quoting takes time, some carriers require an inspection, and a bound policy needs a start date that lines up with your current expiry. Starting in September to beat an October renewal is tight. Starting in August is not.
- Do the defensible-space work regardless. Brush clearance, roof condition, ember-resistant vents and a Class A roof all affect both eligibility and price under model-based rating — our guide to wildfire coverage in California goes through what carriers look at. Some carriers will look again at a home they previously declined after the work is done and documented — photographs dated, receipts kept.
- If you stay on the FAIR Plan, re-check the companion policy. Rebuild costs have moved considerably since 2021. A dwelling limit set then is very likely low now, and being underinsured on a policy you are about to pay 29% more for is the worst of both outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
How much is my FAIR Plan premium going up on 15 October 2026?
Nobody can tell you from the 29.1% figure alone — that is a statewide average across all dwelling policies. Under catastrophe-model rating the increase concentrates in high wildfire-risk areas, where some premiums rise well beyond 29% and the wildfire portion can roughly double, while lower-exposure homes see smaller increases and a minority see decreases. Your renewal offer is the only source for your actual number.
Does the increase apply to new policies or only renewals?
Both. The approved dwelling rate takes effect on all new and renewal business written on or after 15 October 2026.
Can I get off the FAIR Plan and back into the regular market?
Possibly, and it is more likely now than at any point since 2022. California’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy requires carriers using catastrophe models to commit to writing in wildfire-distressed areas, and several have expanded — Mercury and CSAA received the first such rate approvals in December 2025, and Travelers announced a California expansion in April 2026. Whether any of them will write your specific home depends on its location, roof, and defensible space, which is what a quote establishes.
Why is the FAIR Plan raising rates by so much?
The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires cost the Plan an estimated $4 billion and forced a $1 billion assessment on its member insurers, while its residential exposure grew from $160 billion in 2021 to $558 billion by 2025 and its policy count rose 44% between autumn 2024 and the end of 2025. The rate filing brings pricing closer to the risk the pool actually carries.
What does a FAIR Plan policy not cover?
A FAIR Plan dwelling policy covers fire and smoke. It does not include liability, theft, or water damage, which is why most policyholders pair it with a separate difference-in-conditions policy. When comparing against an admitted-market quote, compare the combined cost of both policies, not the FAIR Plan premium by itself.
Should I wait to see my renewal before shopping?
No. Quoting an admitted carrier can require an inspection and takes time to bind, and a new policy has to line up with your current expiry date. Waiting for the renewal notice leaves too little runway to act on it, which is how people end up renewing at the higher rate by default.
Get it compared before October
We represent multiple admitted and surplus-lines carriers, and we would rather tell you honestly that the FAIR Plan is still your best option than sell you something worse. Request a quote, or reach the San Diego office directly. Bring your current declarations page — and the companion policy if you have one.
Rate figures reflect the California Department of Insurance’s approval of the FAIR Plan’s dwelling rate filing, effective 15 October 2026. Exposure and policy-count figures are the FAIR Plan’s own as reported through 2025. Carrier appetite in California changes frequently; availability described here reflects mid-2026 and is not a guarantee that any named carrier will quote a given property.
